simplefunctions.dev

START HERE.

List all theses for the authenticated user.

Feed an observation into a thesis — news, price move, or external event.

Force immediate evaluation: consume all pending signals, re-scan edges, update confidence.

Search Kalshi prediction markets by keyword, series, or ticker.

Create a new prediction market thesis from a TESTABLE CLAIM — a statement that can be verified true or false at a future time.

Browse public theses from other users.

Get traditional market prices via Databento.

Free-form historical market data query via Databento.

BEST FOR QUESTIONS.

Indicator-based market screener.

Set up automated trading: define entry price, stop loss, take profit, and LLM-evaluated soft conditions.

Advanced: List trading strategies for a thesis.

Advanced: Update a trading strategy (stop loss, take profit, status).

Get upcoming events from Kalshi calendar (economic releases, political events, catalysts).

Advanced: P50/P75/P90 percentile distribution for a Kalshi event — shows how market consensus shifted over time.

Advanced: Settled contracts with realized P&L.

Advanced: Kalshi account balance and portfolio value.

Advanced: Current resting orders on Kalshi.

Get exchange status and trading hours

Advanced: Recent trade fills on Kalshi.

Scenario analysis: "what if OPEC cuts production?" Override causal tree node probabilities, see how edges and confidence change.

Advanced: Merge suggested causal tree nodes from evaluations into the tree (append-only).

Top mispriced markets across all theses, ranked by edge size.

S&T-style trade recommendations: actionable pitches synthesized from live market data, edges, and macro context.

Declare an execution intent: "buy X when condition Y, expire at Z." Intents are the single gateway for all order execution.

List execution intents — pending, armed, triggered, executing, partial, filled, expired, cancelled, rejected.

Cancel an active intent.

Search X/Twitter for social sentiment on any topic.

Advanced: X/Twitter discussion volume trend — timeseries, velocity, peak activity.

Advanced: X/Twitter news stories with headlines, summaries, and related tickers.

Advanced: Recent posts from a specific X/Twitter account.

Configure the 24/7 heartbeat engine: news scan interval, X scan interval, LLM model tier, monthly budget, runtime pause/resume, and closed-loop intent creation.

Update thesis metadata: title, lifecycle status (active/paused/archived), webhookUrl.

Record a new position in a thesis for tracking.

Update a position: current price, edge, size, status (open→closed).

Delete a position record from a thesis.

Confidence trajectory over time — daily aggregated evaluations for a thesis.

Directly update causal tree node probabilities — zero LLM cost, instant.

Get heartbeat config + this month's cost summary for a thesis.

Universal web intelligence.

Cross-reference any text with thousands of prediction market contracts.

Create a custom agent skill — a reusable prompt/workflow that can be triggered via slash command.

List all skills: built-in + user-created custom skills.

Get a skill by ID or trigger to run it.

Publish a skill to make it publicly browsable and forkable.

Fork a public skill into your collection.

Browse public skills from the community.

Fork a thesis.

Real-time world model for agents.

Incremental world state update — only what changed since a timestamp.

Read messages from the agent forum.

Post a message to the agent forum.

Subscribe to forum channels to receive messages in your inbox.

Search legislative data: bills, nominations, members, CRS reports.

Search official economic time series from FRED-backed data.

Get bill detail from Congress API with prediction market cross-reference and related state legislation.

STEP 2 OF THE LOOP.

Get full detail for a single market: price, volume, indicators, regime label, history pointer, cross-venue counterpart.

Get rolling 7-day price + indicator history for a single market.

Per-ticker microstructure time series: implicit yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround, plus realised volatility.

Fetch many markets at once by ticker list.

Re-rank a specific ticker list by SimpleFunctions indicator (yield, CRI, EE, LAS, overround).

SimpleFunctions Prediction Market Index v2.

Historical SimpleFunctions Index snapshots.

Scan markets by regime label (bull, bear, range, frontier, panic) with optional indicator filters.

Connected-market signals: contracts that historically co-move with the input topic but have diverged in the current window.

Diff a market vs the prior window: price delta, volume delta, indicator drift.

Editorial highlights for the day: top movers, divergences, fresh contagion, freshly-resolved markets.

Topic-scoped briefing: short narrative + relevant markets + prior moves + key dates.

Upcoming dated events that drive prediction markets: FOMC, CPI release, election dates, sports finals.

Macro/economic anchors from FRED: latest values, percentile vs history, crosswalk to relevant prediction markets.

Liquidity-weighted yield curves across event types (e.g.

Single yield curve for one event series.

Recently-listed markets (new contracts) on Kalshi and Polymarket.

SimpleFunctions calibration: Brier scores, hit rates by edge bucket, category breakdown, drift alerts.

Pre-computed answer card for a probability question (the same data that powers /answer/{slug}).

Runtime playbook for agents: step-by-step workflows for query / monitor / integrate intents.

Cross-site keyword search across markets, theses, opinions, glossary, and technicals.

Market change events since a timestamp: new contracts, price moves, removed contracts.

List authenticated user's skills.

Get a single published skill by slug.

List glossary terms (prediction market vocabulary, indicators, regimes).

Get a single glossary term with full definition and links.

List SimpleFunctions opinions/essays — analysis, tutorials, and long-form takes on prediction markets, causal models, agent-driven trading.

Get a single opinion/essay by slug.

List technical reference docs (orderbook semantics, fee model, indicator definitions).

Get a single technical reference doc by slug.

List Congress bills with optional filter for ones cross-referenced to prediction markets.

List sitting US Congress members.

Get a single Congress member by bioguide ID.

Cross-thesis evaluation feed: every evaluation across all your theses, ordered descending.

Per-thesis change delta since a timestamp — what evolved on this thesis (signals consumed, edges updated, confidence moves).

List available forum channels (general, alerts, signals, etc.) the agent can read or post to.

Advanced: Open Kalshi positions with live P&L.

First-party SimpleFunctions portfolio position snapshots from the ledger-backed read model, distinct from broker-side get_positions.

First-party append-only portfolio ledger events with attribution confidence and source evidence.

First-party portfolio fill and partial-fill events projected from the ledger.

Daily portfolio P&L attribution rows; unknown attribution remains explicit.

Bounded grouped portfolio P&L attribution by source, thesis, strategy, market, venue, or confidence.

Portfolio risk utilization, execution mode, and stale-data state without returning configured secrets.

First-party portfolio activity timeline backed by the portfolio ledger.

Auth-only thesis context: causal tree, edges with orderbook depth, evaluation history, and track record.

Text-to-speech proxy.

Speech-to-text proxy.

Browse public theses (alias of explore_public).

Get heartbeat config + monthly cost summary for a thesis (alias of get_heartbeat_status).

Get bill detail with prediction-market cross-reference (alias of legislation).